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Streaming, Bag and Rock and Roll: Here is the "second life" of music.

Music' over, friends go. The seven banknote industry is no longer the same as it was before the crisis, when it moved around 26.8 billion dollars worldwide (Figure 1999). But no: in 2030 the sector will be worth 41 billion dollars, according to the latest Goldman Sachs sector survey.

A growing tendency that has a winner: Streaming, a relatively young company that has moved the heart of the system from the old record companies to on-line platforms in a single step. New protagonists who needed little time to learn to sit at the table and distribute the cards: Spotify and Apple Music on one side, Facebook and Alphabet on the other.

Potify a Wall Street: molla o non molla? It is no coincidence that the most anticipated event of the year on Wall Street is Spotify's listing. All this would allow for a low -cost listing of Potify, and its existing investors would not dilute their stake. In 2015potify was estimated at 8.5 billion, today we speak of a value of at least 20 billion dollars.

This is enormous when we consider that the value of all the music included in the last report by Institute of Music is around 15.7 billion, even if we have to add to that the copyright deal associated with the sector, which is equivalent to 9.16 billion dollars. However, a fairly good rating for the Stockholm-based company, which has 70 million subscribers and 140 million users in 61 countries, a turnover of 3.3 billion dollars, but net losses of 600 million.

That the  "second lifeÂ" of music is exposed to a financial bubble? Before rushing to answers, it is best to look at the streaming segment: $4.6 billion in revenue in 2016 and the locomotive's output in constant acceleration (+36.2% in 2014; +47.3% in 2015 and +60.4% in 2016).

Now the public is increasingly willing to pay: 112 million subscribers worldwide on platforms such as Spotify, Apple Music, Tidal or more localized services such as Tencent in China. Based on this data, Goldman Sachs predicts a renewed strength for the music industry in 2030, with global sales of 41 billion dollars and master streaming with a contribution of 34 billion dollars, of which 28 billion come from success fee formulas (it is estimated that in 12 years the subscribers to the various platforms will be 847 million) and 6 billion from audio samples with advertising.

This market development will increase the value of Universal Music Group and Sony Music, the first and second large players to be delisted but controlled by the French Vivendi and Japanese Sony Corp. The Goldman Sachs group estimates Umg at 23.3 billion dollars and the musical costs of the Sony group at 19.8 billion dollars.

The first, in fact, in a 2030 dominated by streaming should arrive, for example, to bill more than $15 billion, which is three times the current revenue of the labels that released 2016 White and Jonesome of the Rolling Stones. For Andrea Rosi, president of Sony Music Italy, "the bubble does not exist.

We are in the midst of a very complex transition process: music from good material that has been sold to the public and generated commercial revenue is increasingly becoming a service. Of course, we record companies are particularly interested in the premier segment, which improves the product more than the free streaming paid for by advertising.

Certainly, more or less everyone is trying to interpret change rather than go through it, as they did in the early 2000s when, in the middle of the era of illegal filing, they focused on the Napster case. Both Universal and Sony, for example, have agreed with Sony that their users can play and share music on the group's platforms.

Besides videomonetarization, similar to Youtube, there are interesting perspectives about Instagram and the field of artificial intelligence that revolves around Oculus, without forgetting the integration of music with Messenger. "â??Câé hungry for contentÂ", explains Claudio Buja, President of Universal Music PublishingÂ", â??you can see it in the public response, but also in the investments that online platforms makeÂ".

The Alphabet Group has agreed with Universal, Sony and Warner to launch the paid streaming service Youtube Remix. When Amazon Music Unlimited started out to bet on streaming music content, Apple believed above all that 30 million subscribers with an estimated operation of about 400 million people would play for a fee via the Apple Music platform playing games on-line, instead buying Shazam, the app that recognizes the songs.

See value gaps, the not too fair distribution of music revenues between streaming platforms and rights holders. According to Enzo Mazza, president of Fimi, the association of the big record companies, the value void "affects Youtube today and could also affect Facebook in the perspective. The specific legal status of platforms based on user-loaded content has allowed technology companies to pay right holders a few dollars compared to services such as Spotify.

In fact, YouTube pays less than a dollar for a thousand streams while Spotify pays seven. Lâauspicio is that the European Union adopts the new Directive on Copyrights with stricter obligations for platforms and resulting revenue growth for large corporations and artists. If it succeeds, Goldman Sachs' forecast of 41 billion revenues for 2030 could be more than a wish.

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